Tamil Nadu — A Biden presidency in the United States and India’s weight on the Emerging Markets Index could have a positive impact on Indian markets, which currently have got over $17 billion in foreign funds this financial year.

“We expect Biden’s government to focus on health care and other things instead of the capital markets, which would result in the weakening of the dollar,” said Nasser Salim, managing partner at Flexi Capital, a New Delhi-based financial management company. “This will weaken the dollar and money will move to emerging markets.

Salim also expects the Biden administration to come up with a stimulus package, the latest iteration of which has been stalled in Congress for the past several months.

“Prospects for corporate tax increases and expanding health care were among the top areas cited by executives ahead of the election as potential policy risks, according to a PwC report on post-election policy, with Biden projected to be the winner of the 2020 general election.

Other reports show that exchange-traded funds tracking overseas stocks have been on the rise since it appeared that Biden was likely to be the next U.S. president.

In a boost to U.S. companies, and in a measure meant to keep funds from flowing overseas, President Trump cut the corporate tax rate from 33 percent to 21 percent. During the Trump administration, the value of the dollar has also strengthened, as has economic growth overall. When Trump took office in January 2017, the exchange rate was $1 =INR 68; currently the rate is $1=INR 74.

Since the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the interest rate in June to near zero through 2022 to help the economy recover from the pandemic, “This money will have to be put somewhere and India could be that country,” said Kshitij Mahajan, co-founder of Complete Circle Consultants, a boutique wealth and financial management firm.

Recently, Morgan Stanley Capital Investment added 12 Indian stocks to its index, and increased the country’s weight in the Emerging Markets Index to 8.7 from 8.1, which could boost investor confidence.

Another potential incentive for foreign investment, according to Prakash Ranjan Sinha, director of Nurture India Consultant, is that “Our fundamentals are looking slightly better than before. India has stable policies. So it could be a favored destination among emerging markets.”

The country’s economic growth, however, has been a concern in recent times. India’s gross domestic product was already slowing before the pandemic.

In the current financial year, $17 billion of foreign investment has come into India, after two years of decline. Much of it has been through equities. Some of India’s top companies have benefited from this.

Foreign investors now hold a 25.23 percent share in Reliance Industries, India’s largest corporation, with a market capitalization of $200 billion.

Facebook and California-based equity investor Silver Lake are among the firms that have invested in RIL subsidiaries.

Earlier this year, Facebook bought a 9.9 percent stake in Reliance Jio, RIL’s telecommunication arm. Silver Lake has invested $1.3 billion in Jio and has announced that it will invest in Reliance Retail.

EuroPacific Growth Fund, part of U.S.-based financial services company Capital Group, has increased its stake in India’s largest private bank HDFC by over 3 percent. It has also invested in India’s largest automaker, Maruti Suzuki.

Most foreign investors have put their money in equities and have withdrawn from debt instruments.

(Edited by Siddharthya Roy and Judith Isacoff. Map and graph by Urvashi Makwana.)

KINGSTON, N.Y. — A bakery in Kingston, New York, has created a sweet take on a salty presidential election with a cookie poll that lets customers “cast votes” by purchasing Joe Biden- or Donald Trump-themed cookies. So far, 992 Trump cookies have been sold since they started the poll on Oct. 1, putting the president at a 72-cookie lead against Biden, whose count stands at 920. The update is current as of the bakery’s Oct. 29 reporting.

The round sugar cookies are decorated with red, white and blue sprinkles and feature either Trump’s or Biden’s face on them. They are priced at $48 a dozen by mail order including shipping, or $2.50 each in-store. Deising’s Bakery keeps track of the count at the register and on Facebook.
Unofficial presidential election polls have been a fun way to predict the election in America for decades. Nickelodeon has a “kid’s choice” poll that targets Americans who won’t officially be able to vote for years — this year, the kids are leaning toward Biden. The poll has been right six out of the last eight elections.

Other businesses, such as Halloween mask manufacturers and sellers, have cast their predictions every four years as well — even predicting Trump in 2016 when many news polls were incorrect.
Deising’s Bakery has done a cookie poll for every presidential election since 1992, and its results have always matched the official election outcome, the bakery says. It has been keeping records of its polling numbers since the 2000 presidential election.
In that election, 168 George W. Bush cookies were purchased compared to 163 cookies for his opponent, Al Gore. President Bush won the cookie poll and the election again in 2004, beating Democratic hopeful John Kerry by eight cookies. In 2008, 196 Barack Obama cookies were purchased compared to 143 cookies for Senator John McCain. President Obama won again in 2012 with 192 cookies to Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s 177.
“The closest cookie poll we’ve had was in 2000, which is coincidentally the closest election we’ve had,” said bakery president Eric Deising.

During the 2016 election, the poll’s numbers rose to 400 cookies for Donald Trump, versus 345 cookies for Hillary Clinton. This year the numbers have more than doubled, with each candidate raking in at least 900 cookies with less than a week left until Election Day.
“We almost didn’t do them this year because we’re concerned about the sensitivity of this election, but it’s been really popular. There has never been an argument in-store, which I was surprised about,” Deising said.

A post on the bakery’s Facebook page highlights the importance of levity during today’s deeply partisan political environment: “This cookie poll is about having fun and being lighthearted! Deising’s has never, and will never endorse a political candidate. Most importantly, this cookie poll helps support our family business and the employees that work here.”

Though the New York bakery’s poll currently has Trump winning, it is unlikely Trump will secure the solidly “blue” state. The last time New York voted Republican was during the 1984 election, choosing Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale.

 

Customers may purchase as many cookies for either candidate as they’d like, which leads to some subtle competition in the store.
“If Trump gets too far ahead, someone will come in and buy 55 cookies just to catch Biden up,” Deising said. “It happens the other way around too. We recently had an order from a wholesale customer for 100 of the Trump cookies for a Republican get-together.”
Deising does not have his own prediction of the election outcome, but one thing he knows for sure is that cookie sales will spike closer to Election Day. “Once we get closer, the number will jump up. People buy them for election night parties,” Deising said.
Customers can show support for their preferred candidate by purchasing the cookies up until 5:30 p.m. EST on Election Day Nov. 3, when the shop closes for the day. Whether we’ll know on election night whether any poll’s results were half-baked remains to be seen.
(Edited by Cathy Jones and Matt Rasnic)